Evaluación de diferentes estrategias para la generación de sistemas de predicción por conjuntos regionales de escala convectiva en un caso de precipitación intensa

Cynthia Matsudo; Yanina Garc´ıa Skabar; Juan Jos´e Ruiz

doi:10.24215/1850468Xe022

Authors

Cynthia Matsudo Servicio Meteorol´ogico Nacional
Yanina Garc´ıa Skabar Servicio Meteorol´ogico Nacional, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
Juan Jos´e Ruiz Universidad de Buenos Aires, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe022

Keywords:

ensemble, high-resolution, precipitation

Abstract

Ensemble forecasting is an established methodology for incorporating forecast uncertainty at various spatial and temporal scales. In particular, at mesoscale, it is not yet clear which are the most effective techniques to represent the uncertainty associated with initial conditions and model errors. In this paper, three different alternatives for generating ensemble forecasts at high resolution are evaluated and a comparison is made with a global ensemble at low resolution. Each ensemble was built using 20 members using the WRF-ARW model with a 4-km horizontal resolution over a domain covering central northeastern Argentina. The performance of the ensembles is explored for a case study of intense precipitation between 22 and 24 December 2015. Results are focused on the analysis of precipitation forecast performance and show that high resolution ensembles perform better than a low resolution global ensemble both in terms of forecast accuracy and quantification of uncertainty. While the regional ensembles tend to be, in general, poorly dispersive, the multiphysics ensembles show higher spread and lower bias for thresholds greater than 10 mm. Also, the incorporation of perturbations at the initial and boundary conditions slightly increases the spread and improves the spatial representation of precipitation patterns for all the thresholds considered.

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Author Biographies

Cynthia Matsudo, Servicio Meteorol´ogico Nacional

Servicio Meteorol´ogico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Yanina Garc´ıa Skabar, Servicio Meteorol´ogico Nacional, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Servicio Meteorol´ogico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina. CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Juan Jos´e Ruiz, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Departamento de Ciencias de la Atm´osfera y los Oc´eanos, FCEyN, UBA. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atm´osfera, CONICET/FCEN-UBA.

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